[CSG]

And here's a ray of hope, from the NWS forecast discussion:

Much larger changes begin to take shape beginning Friday with a retrogression of the long wave pattern. Strong ridging out near 150w allows for a sharp upper trough to rapidly form along the b.C. Coast and drop southward. Both the GFS/European model (ecmwf) have consistently shown this to occur with the 00z European model (ecmwf) and 06z GFS agreeing on the formation of a closed upper low and Lee side surface low off Vancouver Island Friday night or Saturday...driving southward. Models disagree on how cold of an air mass will follow so it is too early to tell how low snow levels will fall and how much moisture will be involved. Will need to continue watching this over the next several days as a change to colder temperatures and very low snow levels are possible.

Now is the time to start investigating toe-sacrifice and other anti-jinx mechanisms. However, I think we're safe since this is when I am flying out of town for a week!

[Pro Groomer]

Rode the wire today at work, and actually linked 3 consecutive turns in 11 cm of fresh pow - things are looking up !!

[Rebob]

Sorry for the late post, but some interesting business going on higher in the Duffey region this weekend. Above 2000m, on a northern exposure, we found 5cm of facets on top of neve and then 110--135cm HS or seasonal snow. This layer of facets was not reactive, and is very strongly bridged, but might be more interesting when we do get cornices (cornice fall trigger) or when one wanders into areas where the HS is much less than one metre due to winds, etc. Any pulling on the top of the column resulted in a "pop" and the entire column slid off in one piece.

Also, CTH (23) SP (sudden planar) repeatable, 25cm down on decomposing forms, at 2200m. Fair amount of energy in this release, with the release really popping and the block sliding easily on slopes 35 degrees and steeper.

Skiing on Saturday/Sunday was not stellar, but with last night's storm snow, the game might be on and approaches above treeline a little easier in some of the more protected areas of the Duffey.

We booted most of the way through the trees to TL or subalpine meadows before putting on the skiis. Three weeks in a row of that, but at least turns possible now.

[mekon]

Took the day off to enjoy the sunshine (of which there will be more, soon, I understand...) and hiked up the Howe Sound Crest Trail a ways and also checked out Cypress Mt. There sure is not much snow. Maybe 8 inches or a foot in places at most. Even with the "dump" they are predicting for tomorrow, there won't be near enough to ski, at least on the lower half of the mountain. I didn't go any higher.

But it was gorgeous out, that it was. I had lunch in the little saddle on the trail behind Strachan and listened to the snow melting out of the treetops. A ways beyond that is a great view of the lions which were just caked in snow.

Sadly, I am too lazy to figure out pictures here...

[Hamish]

It's snowing in Vancouver. Yaaaayyyyyy!!!! It's getting better. I may not be golfing at Whistler over Christmas.

Forecast is cold and clear next week. I guess the snowmachines will be busy, at least. After that, the long-term forecasts are calling for a week of cold and precipitation. Time to deflower my el hombres???

[Rebob]

[giiba]

I went to Mt Baker on the 10th, and went up most of heliotrope ridge. We could skin at treeline, but the snow was terrible... not really snow, more 25mm of hard pavement textured ice. Not fun, but skiing none the less.

Beware of baker if there is a large dump, the whole thing will be prime for avalanche.

[Rebob]

giiba, were you there during the first storm on that layer? Around the Sea-to-Sky, the storm came in warm and cooled afterward, actually creating a better than expected bond. Just curious if that could have happened there?

Having said that, the rapidly cooling temps, winds, and new snow will likely disturb what stability there was.

Also, there is speculation that the TL area is gaining enough snow to be at threshold for avalanches in the next 24hrs.

[Hamish]

I do suspect that this dump of snow, with very cold and clear afterwards, and then what looks like quite a bit of snow following, could create a really bad layering effect on the base. Remember several years ago with that Dec 12 layer that kept poking its dangerous head up all winter? I am worried about a lot of fresh snow on hoar frost, but what are you going to do?

[Scotsman]

Hamish, it's snowing. Stop moaning about the snow pack. At least we're getting one.
_________________
How did a species as dumb as me ever get to be dominant on this planet?

[Hamish]

What good is that going to do me? My Scarpa TX's are going to burst into pieces on my first run of the season, there'll be no replacements until the summer, so I won't be able to ski even if there is snow. (Which there won't be.)

Either way, I'm screwed.

There, is that pessimistic enough for you?

[Hamish]

And did I mention my repair bill on the Outback?

[CSG]

Paul Ridge this am. Good news is that you can ski all the way back to the parking lot, if you're ok with hitting the odd pebble in the thin patches. Snow has wound down quite a bit, so probably not much more than 5 - 10cm's from this shot.

~75cm snowpack from hasty pit at ridgetop on the north facing slopes that are the main attraction. The lower most 30 - 40cm are a solid block of crust / ice. Surprisingly good bond between that and next 15 - 20cm's (last w/e storm: mostly rain, but ended up cold). Then: the barest of crusts (on skinny rock skis I sometimes punched down through it) below the top storm snow (must be combined Tuesday and today -- very quick look so could be a discrete break in there). This can be convinced to move, but you have to try pretty hard.

Curious to see what three - four nights of clear and cold will do to this sandwich. Surface hoar for sure, probably faceting... thin snowpack and cold temps. Memories of the Rockies!

No pics cause nothing to see. Didn't hit any rocks (luck had something to do with it), but my 35$ skis are starting to delaminate! I want a refund!

[giiba]

poor poor Hamish

The ice I was on seemed caused by the inversion. We broke through the clouds at a point and most of the mountain was basked in sunshine... I needed my sunglasses. If it has snowed on the top half of Baker this season, it sure doesn't show it. There was only ever the thinnest layer of snow with scattered patches about 10cm deep, though even enough for skinning above cloudline.

I realize elevation might be nice but I just don't know the mountain well enough... treeline on the trail.

[Rebob]

Out in the Cayoosh on Saturday and behind Blackcomb on Sunday. Temps generally around -25C at 2000m and up. Strong winds at times, especially at ridgetops. Intense transport in alpine.

Not much skied, as most snowpacks do not have enough to do anything more than cover nuggets. Exceptions found on old neve and glaciers.

Cold was interesting on equipment. Another Alpinist skin loses its handy tip clip-on due to fractured plastic and a handle on one ski pole broke in half....Another cold one today.

Definitely some facetting going on above the top melt-freeze crust in the snowpack, and lots of medium-hard windslab wherever the wind can get at the snow. Will be interesting when we actually do get snow.