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Avalanche Risk

Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 1:40 pm
by Stephen
This topic seems worthy of its own thread, so moved it here from another thread.

I have been having a growing sense of dread about avalanches.

Back in my 20s I remember hearing WOMPs all the time while skiing in the Rockies, and mostly just finding that “Interesting.”
I know I could have been killed multiple times, but was lucky.

Just started reading “Staying Alive in Avalanche Terrain.”
The author starts out by making a few points:
- Avalanche terrain is “safe” a high percentage of the time;
- We pass through dangerous areas often, without incident;
- Therefore, we start to think we must know something about staying safe.
He shares his early-in-life, come to Jesus moment where he found out first-hand how little he knew and how lucky he was to survive his ignorance.

He also points out that the majority of those who die in an avalanche are well educated males.

I know a lot of people here are sticking to low angle terrain, but even there it’s possible to be in or near avalanche terrain without realizing the risks. If one is in a terrain trap, and if 10’ or 15’ of slope above you breaks away, one can be buried.

I think it’s easy to externalize avalanche risk:
- It’s random so I can’t really do anything about it.
- Or, rely on technology to mitigate risk, such as avalanche airbags, daily avalanche reports, slope risk maps, etc.
I don’t want to be preachy about it (even though I probably am being), but encourage others to take personal responsibility for being educated about avalanche risk so they can be actively involved in decision-making in the moment.

For me, this is the moment I admit how little I know and do something about it:
- Read a book;
- Signed up for AIARE Level 1 avalanche class (yes, it’s kind of expensive, but so is dying);
- Bought a Beacon (now need to learn how to use it like someone’s life depends on me using it skillfully).

If you ski where it can slide, encourage you to educate yourself.
No one who has died in an avalanche was planning on that…

Re: Avalanche Risk

Posted: Sat Dec 11, 2021 3:19 pm
by joeatomictoad
This is all good stuff, and I can plead nothing but ignorance about mountaineering skills and avalanche safety.

If I had more mountain access, for sure I'd pick up some classes. I've thumbed through some mountaineering books at hostels and libraries.... and it's humbling to learn that I don't know merely enough.

To increase general awareness, I think have to target the tourists. To my knowledge, there is no uber-intro course available at the resorts or places where tourists hang. By uber-intro... I mean something that keeps them moving, but also exposes them.

No more than half day. Ski around. Stop. This is a snow pit. Ski some more. Stop. This is a tree well. Ski some more. Stop. This is wind loaded snow. Nothing too technical, but just enough to at least build a vocabulary.

Re: Avalanche Risk

Posted: Sun Dec 12, 2021 12:27 am
by Stephen
While all of those caught in the avalanche were experienced backcountry skiers, a warning had been issued against skiing in the area, which was just inside the boundaries of Crystal Mountain Resort.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/avala ... li=BBnbfcL

Re: Avalanche Risk

Posted: Sun Dec 12, 2021 2:58 am
by jyw5
Some multiday guided backcountry tours include an avy course on the 1st day. Good ones always have at least a 2-3 hr refresher course. Also, mountaineering -- snow climbing trips can also incorporate avy course on 1st day.

if you are getting serious with it, I would recommend reading a few books ahead of time then going for a 7-10 day tour with the 1st day being a level 1 avy course. The avy eval done by the guides on subsequent days can be a good learning experience and discussed at dinner time.

I did a 7 day trip, 1600m/day vertical in Selkirk Mtns in Canada a few yrs ago. Avy eval and search and rescue skills improved along with my skiing ability.

The most common problem with backcountry touring is that skiing skills/knowledge is often much greater than avalanche skills/knowledge...that is what they tell you in the 1st hour of an avy course...this puts most skiiers in grave danger. Overconfidence, herd mentality, and complacency are often the cause of an incident for pro level skiiers. The most common snow problems that are taught in the 1st hour of an avy course are also the ones that end up grossly ignored by experienced skiiers. I admit I have fallen in this category a few times. Anyone who has skiied long enough has taken some risks.

These incidences are also unfortunately called "accidents" despite all the obvious signs of high risk. This in my opinion, has been one of the worst errors made by many communities and its leaders...this is a disservice to the backcountry community because the majority of the time this happens, it was bad judgment.
But to not speak ill of the dead, they call it an accident and no one points out that incredibly poor decisions were made by experienced skiiers who should have known better...so then, the cycle continues. And when someone in the community speaks out, their comments are deleted and silenced and criticized and told not to judge because "they weren't there"...

the responsible thing to say should be:

skiiers of all levels need better risk assessment and should be led by fine example

and not be misled into thinking that expert or highly experienced skiiers just died in an avalanche because of bad luck when in fact a poor route was chosen, snow was known to be unstable, weather was not good, unsufficient equipment, etc. (these are the most common reasons I have seen that have led to stressful, dangerous, and expensive search and rescue efforts)

Rant over. Thanks for reading.

Re: Avalanche Risk

Posted: Sun Dec 12, 2021 9:47 am
by fgd135
Several western US states have government-run avalanche centers, primarily for road conditions support but also for backcountry skiers and riders; always loads of localised forecasting and conditions for planning bc tours:
https://www.avalanche.state.co.us/
This info is no substitute for avalanche training and good judgement, but is great information overall.

Re: Avalanche Risk

Posted: Sun Dec 12, 2021 6:53 pm
by jyw5
this:

education, awareness, exercise caution

Re: Avalanche Risk

Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:48 pm
by Cannatonic
Skiers are often directed to complicated avalanche-safety courses, but I read recently that having AIRE certifcation is not making any difference in death rate so far - statistically the people die at the same rate or higher than non-certified skiers.

The most simple and effective rule of thumb often gets obscured IMO - Do not ski in avalanche terrain the day after a snow or wind-loading event. Wait at least one day. That simple choice massively reduces your risk without any other techniques or beacon,shovel,probe use.

I always thought the 1-day-wait rule only applied in areas like New England or Pac NW because of marine snow, but I recently found out the rule is the same on continental snowpack as well. Something like 99% of avy deaths occur within 24 hours of new snow or wind-loading events. You can dig pits until you're blue in the face, but it's smarter and much safer to wait another day. Obviously for multi-days tours you may not have this luxury, but the rule works great for day trippers. The biggest mistake is to think your avy "skills" and knowledge will protect you the day after fresh snow.

Re: Avalanche Risk

Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2021 2:53 pm
by joeatomictoad
Cannatonic wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:48 pm
The biggest mistake is to think your avy "skills" and knowledge will protect you the day after fresh snow.
"Knowing just enough to be dangerous" is a real thing. No amount of formal training can replace common sense, we just hope the training helps raise the standard for what is "common".

Re: Avalanche Risk

Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:27 pm
by jyw5
The community needs to call out bad judgment and exercise criticism. Stop being a baby about it to spare feelings because in being blunt, they might actually save lives.

But I'm done voicing my opinions in my own community because if they can't handle criticism, people will continue to get into bad situations and do stupid shit.

You can easily reduce avy risk by 90% just by reading a basic avy book and using common sense. exactly what you said above, don't ski angled terrain after a big storm. thats probably the best day to xc or ride your fattire bike.

most ppl dying are day trippers.

Re: Avalanche Risk

Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:33 pm
by Stephen
joeatomictoad wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 2:53 pm
Cannatonic wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:48 pm
The biggest mistake is to think your avy "skills" and knowledge will protect you the day after fresh snow.
"Knowing just enough to be dangerous" is a real thing. No amount of formal training can replace common sense, we just hope the training helps raise the standard for what is "common".
I’m almost speechless — but not quite.
The logic here simply doesn’t hold up.

The biggest mistake is to think your avy "skills" and knowledge will protect you the day after fresh snow.
No, the biggest mistake might well be having knowledge and not using it.
The second biggest mistake might be having no, or bad knowledge.

No amount of formal training can replace common sense
Would you let someone you care about use your table saw, without training? Hoping that they would find out about kickback, bind up, safe blade height, etc. before they cut a finger off, or worse?

Would you turn a 15 year old loose in an automobile without any training, and just rely on “common sense?”

I would argue that there is no such thing, AT ALL, as common sense.
What we call common sense is knowledge gained through observation and experience.

Maybe “worst thing” and “common sense” are just figures of speech, and I shouldn’t be so literal…
:roll:
Cannatonic wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:48 pm
Skiers are often directed to complicated avalanche-safety courses, but I read recently that having AIRE certifcation is not making any difference in death rate so far - statistically the people die at the same rate or higher than non-certified skiers.

The most simple and effective rule of thumb often gets obscured IMO - Do not ski in avalanche terrain the day after a snow or wind-loading event. Wait at least one day. That simple choice massively reduces your risk without any other techniques or beacon,shovel,probe use.

I always thought the 1-day-wait rule only applied in areas like New England or Pac NW because of marine snow, but I recently found out the rule is the same on continental snowpack as well. Something like 99% of avy deaths occur within 24 hours of new snow or wind-loading events. You can dig pits until you're blue in the face, but it's smarter and much safer to wait another day. Obviously for multi-days tours you may not have this luxury, but the rule works great for day trippers. The biggest mistake is to think your avy "skills" and knowledge will protect you the day after fresh snow.
A few thoughts on this…

- Waiting 24 hours is probably better than nothing;
- I think the low correlation between avy education and avy deaths doesn’t mean that avy education is not worthwhile. There are many possible explanations. For example, people know that faster highway speeds result in more deaths. Does that make everyone drive slower? I don’t think so. It’s possible to abuse knowledge, and then say that having known something didn’t result in a better outcome. People are not perfect decision-makers.
-Thinking that knowledge is useless and simple rules-of-thumb are good enough seems like a cop-out.

Personally, I would argue for gaining AND applying knowledge.

@Cannatonic, would you want your heli-ski guide to just rely on the 24 hour rule-of-thumb, or would you want them to be trained in avalanche risk avoidance? And if training for them, why not you and me, also?

I don’t mean to jump all over you, but I don’t like the idea of giving people an easy out on this.
I think people who recreate anywhere in avalanche country have a responsibility to be educated and knowledgeable, and to apply that knowledge.

Every year people die who did not need to die, and other people have to risk their lives to rescue or retrieve, and all those who care, for one reason or another, are left with a lifetime memory of a tragic, and often preventable death.

I’m sure I’m being a DH about this, but I’m ok with that if it gets people thinking about the subject, and better yet, taking action to be safer (in any way) in avalanche terrain.

I’m just trying to be one of those little points of light in the universe, radiating peace and love and happiness!