Avalanche Risk

[lowangle al]

That's a good lesson right there. Just because there's tracks on it doesn't mean it's safe.

It's good to read the reports from the public to see how they got into trouble or what they observed.

[Montana St Alum]

Okay. "THIS is a slab!


This is in the La Sals

https://www.kpcw.org/local-news/2021-12 ... asons-ever

[lowangle al]

That is the kind of slide that you will probably die from trauma before you're dug out. If you get dug out, sometimes your family will have to wait for summer to find your body.

[Montana St Alum]

I expect it's not just the Wasatch. And it looks like the next 10 days or so are going to be wet out west.

https://www.kpcw.org/local-news/2021-12 ... asons-ever

[fgd135]

Related to this discussion:
https://coloradosun.com/2021/12/21/aval ... -marshall/

[joeatomictoad]

Related to this discussion:
https://coloradosun.com/2021/12/21/aval ... -marshall/

This hits close to my familiarity with regulatory compliance in the marine and offshore industries. Penny for my thoughts:

Avalanche air bags are something I know little about. Cursory search shows these are designed for easy discharging/charging/renewing. Pressurized cylinders are not allowed on airplanes, so the design needs to meet this use case.

PPE to mitigate risk can be a good thing, but it's also a dual-edged sword... often requiring extra overhead and extra controls to satisfy the originating issue. (type approved to performance standards, certified service supplier, user training, etc.)

The safety feature, in and of itself, is also a liability... giving a false sense of safety if not properly maintained, or designed, or trained for, etc. When it comes to safety there's no halfway: In for a penny, in for a pound.

Anecdotally, this is terrible for the family. For the industry, this is a technology going through its lifecycle [ugly, messy, legal ]... ultimately to increase avalanche survivals.

[Ira]

Thanks for the great info everyone! I have a beginner's question related to avalanche risk. If there's a lot of snow falling, but I only ski very very low angle terrain (picture below), would this type of terrain be safe?

This is a low angle forest service road. There is a hill/slope above the forest service road, but only about 100 or 200 feet up (sometimes, when there's lots of fresh snow, there will be small spiral-snail-like snowballs that roll down to the road from the slope above it -- they never block the road and stop where the hill and road meet) but I've never seen anything more than that, i.e. never seen evidence of a snow-slide beyond spiral snowballs, even on heavy snow-days and afterwards.

Is this type of terrain avalanche-safe during times of repeated heavy snowfall?

Thanks!

[jyw5]

Thanks for the great info everyone! I have a beginner's question related to avalanche risk. If there's a lot of snow falling, but I only ski very very low angle terrain (picture below), would this type of terrain be safe?

This is a low angle forest service road. There is a hill/slope above the forest service road, but only about 100 or 200 feet up (sometimes, when there's lots of fresh snow, there will be small spiral-snail-like snowballs that roll down to the road from the slope above it -- they never block the road and stop where the hill and road meet) but I've never seen anything more than that, i.e. never seen evidence of a snow-slide beyond spiral snowballs, even on heavy snow-days and afterwards.

Is this type of terrain avalanche-safe during times of repeated heavy snowfall?
ForestServiceRoadSkiTracks.jpg

forestserviceroadshady.jpg

Thanks!

yes. it is safe...unless the trail crosses a slope that is greater than 25degrees (that has a small chance of sliding with 38degrees being the largest chance). so make sure the trail isn't in a path of a slope with avy slide.

also, tree wells are a potential danger so if you venture off trail near trees, be careful of that. tree wells injuries and deaths have been understated and not talked about in detail.

from your pics, it looks pretty flat and safe.

[Montana St Alum]

Avalanche warning till tomorrow morning sounds overly optimistic. Maybe a week from tomorrow!
Unless this is a false alarm.

Weather Alerts-Deer Valley Resort, UT
Winter Storm Warning from THU 6:00 AM MST until SAT 5:00 AM MST
1 of 2
Action Recommended
Make preparations per the instructions
Issued By
Salt Lake City - UT, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
Wasatch Mountains South of I-80, Wasatch Mountains I- 80 North, Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs and Western Uinta Mountains
Description
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY...

WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Widespread total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet, with favored areas in the central Wasatch and western Uintas up to 3 feet. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

WHERE...Wasatch Mountains South of I-80, Wasatch Mountains I- 80 North, Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs and Western Uinta Mountains.

WHEN...From 6 AM today to 5 AM MST Saturday.

IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates will likely average around 1 inch per hour from this evening through Friday morning, with peak rates of 2+ inches per hour.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

For graphical depictions of the snowfall forecast, including Official NWS Forecast, High End Amount, and Low End Amount, visit weather.gov/slc/winter.

For winter road conditions from the Utah Department of Transportation, visit http://www.udottraffic.utah.gov/roadwea ... ecast.aspx or dial 511.

Avalanche Warning until FRI 6:15 AM MST
2 of 2
Action Recommended
Avoid the subject event as per the instructions
Issued By
Salt Lake City - UT, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF MUCH OF THE STATE OF UTAH, INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE, BEAR RIVER RANGE, UINTA MOUNTAINS, MANTI-SKYLINE, AND THE ABAJOS
Description
...THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6AM MST TODAY TO 6AM MST FRIDAY

WHAT...THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO RISE RAPIDLY.

WHERE...FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF MUCH OF THE STATE OF UTAH, INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE, BEAR RIVER RANGE, UINTA MOUNTAINS, MANTI-SKYLINE, AND THE ABAJOS.

WHEN...IN EFFECT FROM 6AM TODAY UNTIL 6AM FRIDAY.

IMPACTS...HEAVY DENSE SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE VERY DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. BOTH HUMAN TRIGGERED NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.

BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELERS SHOULD CONSULT WWW.UTAHAVALANCHECENTER.ORG OR CALL 1-888-999-4019 FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

THIS WATCH DOES NOT APPLY TO SKI AREAS WHERE AVALANCHE HAZARD REDUCTION MEASURES ARE PERFORMED.

[Stephen]

@Montana St Alum, good post. As for the warning until tomorrow morning, maybe they only issue 24 hour avalanche forecasts? I read the forecast and it talks about conditions being unsafe for many days in the future.

For some reason, the link to Utah Avalanche Center in the post did not work for me. When I took out the “www” part, it did work: https://utahavalanchecenter.org

Knowing that conditions are unsafe is a start. I think knowing why makes these warnings even more helpful. Those who know the “why” may take that knowledge for granted or think it is obvious, which it’s not.
There are so many factors that can go into making conditions unsafe, and understanding those factors makes decision-making easier and less of a guess.
Wind, snow temp, snow structure, how well new snow bonds to existing snow, etc all contribute.

And just waiting a day or two after a storm before skiing is not a universally safety measure.