Telemark Talk / Telemark Tips Forum

NOAA data from this link says it will be a bad winter for sporting activity everywhere. Contradicts earlier info from NOAA forecasts pointing to significantly colder in my neck of the woods due to el nino. Maybe it's like how one analyst from a bank can say stocks go up while another at the same bank says stocks go down.

https://snowbrains.com/noaa-winter-23-2 ... xt-winter/

This isn’t much of a surprise. See the initial ENSO based long range model here:

https://www.telemarktalk.com/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5975

“Colder” often means drier. “Less storms” means fewer big snow events. These suggest lower snowfall in the UP.

Lots of things can change. Local anomalies and even regional ones occur. But we’re so clearly entering an El Niño that nobody is talking possibility anymore. They’re talking intensity.

The interesting thing is that this El Niño will coincide with Solar Maximum. Solar activity has been on the upswing for a few years now…part of a normal 11 year cycle that is as old as time. ENSO is on a different cycle… not nearly as predictable or regular. But now we have the sun reaching peak activity, possibly in a year when we could have a strong El Niño (which wouldn’t be that unusual given the protracted La Niña we’ve come out of).

Not a reason for anyone to lose their shit. It’s undoubtedly happened many, many times over the past few hundred years. But it could lead to some interesting effects this winter that go beyond what anyone under 60 has a clear memory of. (ENSO has only been recognized since the 80s. Before that, people wouldn’t have been able to connect El Niño to the effects they were seeing locally.)

Did you look at the forecasts I posted before responding? They said warmer, not colder.

Yup. Focused on the pics tho. It can all add up to the same thing tho, depending on wind patterns. Let me explain…

Cold dry air is ideal early in the season can produce some epic snow in our region, but only if the wind pattern comes across the GL. The key is early in the season because a lot of surface area is lost as the lakes freeze. Superior never freezes completely over tho.. it’s so damned big.

That same cold dry air doesn’t achieve anything to do with snow late in the season if the wind patterns are all zonal W —> E across the plains). Nothing but a thin layer of cold powder over stubble. No big snow.

Warm air does nothing early in the season, regardless of the flow. Late in the season, it can generate some stuff as elevations rise but that’s about it. The best scenario is warm patterns pumping moisture from the east in a nor’easter kind of deal. Big dumps, pretty wet, skiable for a fairly short period of time. We’re sort of on the edge of that zone… N NYS gets most of that kind of stuff, when it happens.

So much of this is a timing and wind pattern thing, with moisture levels being part of the equation. Makes my head hurt thinking about all the possibilities this far out tho.

We’re in a weird place here… the lakes split patterns, temperature, have a big affect on moisture levels that is highly dependent on air temperature, but only if wind direction allows this to happen.

Manney wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 30, 2023 11:10 am

Yup. Focused on the pics tho. It can all add up to the same thing tho, depending on wind patterns. Let me explain…

Cold dry air is ideal early in the season can produce some epic snow in our region, but only if the wind pattern comes across the GL. The key is early in the season because a lot of surface area is lost as the lakes freeze. Superior never freezes completely over tho.. it’s so damned big.

That same cold dry air doesn’t achieve anything to do with snow late in the season if the wind patterns are all zonal W —> E across the plains). Nothing but a thin layer of cold powder over stubble. No big snow.

Warm air does nothing early in the season, regardless of the flow. Late in the season, it can generate some stuff as elevations rise but that’s about it. The best scenario is warm patterns pumping moisture from the east in a nor’easter kind of deal. Big dumps, pretty wet, skiable for a fairly short period of time. We’re sort of on the edge of that zone… N NYS gets most of that kind of stuff, when it happens.

So much of this is a timing and wind pattern thing, with moisture levels being part of the equation. Makes my head hurt thinking about all the possibilities this far out tho.

We’re in a weird place here… the lakes split patterns, temperature, have a big affect on moisture levels that is highly dependent on air temperature.

More misinformation from manney. Lake superior last froze over completely in 1994. Also, dry air does not produce snow and your assessment of how lake effect snow works is laughably over-simplified and incorrect. And nor'easters don't really directly affect us here in the UP.

connyro wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 30, 2023 11:25 am

Manney wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 30, 2023 11:10 am

Yup. Focused on the pics tho. It can all add up to the same thing tho, depending on wind patterns. Let me explain…

Cold dry air is ideal early in the season can produce some epic snow in our region, but only if the wind pattern comes across the GL. The key is early in the season because a lot of surface area is lost as the lakes freeze. Superior never freezes completely over tho.. it’s so damned big.

That same cold dry air doesn’t achieve anything to do with snow late in the season if the wind patterns are all zonal W —> E across the plains). Nothing but a thin layer of cold powder over stubble. No big snow.

Warm air does nothing early in the season, regardless of the flow. Late in the season, it can generate some stuff as elevations rise but that’s about it. The best scenario is warm patterns pumping moisture from the east in a nor’easter kind of deal. Big dumps, pretty wet, skiable for a fairly short period of time. We’re sort of on the edge of that zone… N NYS gets most of that kind of stuff, when it happens.

So much of this is a timing and wind pattern thing, with moisture levels being part of the equation. Makes my head hurt thinking about all the possibilities this far out tho.

We’re in a weird place here… the lakes split patterns, temperature, have a big affect on moisture levels that is highly dependent on air temperature.

More misinformation from manney. Lake superior last froze over completely in 1994. Also, dry air does not produce snow and your assessment of how lake effect snow works is laughably over-simplified and incorrect. And nor'easters don't really directly affect us here in the UP.

It’s a once in a generation event.

Dry air picks up moisture from open water. When that moisture laden air hits elevation, it cools further, losing its ability to hold the water it did. If the upper air temperature is cold enough, it falls as snow. Works the same way in the Rockies… air picks up water over the ocean, is saturated and raises humidity on the coast, hits elevation, releases moisture, tumbles over the mountain and sweeps east as dry air, crosses the plains, dries that place out like a soda cracker, hits the lakes, picks up moisture leading to snow from MI to the NE states.

Re: nor’easter… “N NYS gets most of that stuff”. I guess that wasn’t clear enough for you, NYS and the UP being completely different places.

Where did you go on the Military Ski thread? I thought you were in the the long haul… then you said you were thinking of leaving the forum… but still posting.

Maybe you weren’t thinking at all. Or contributing. Just venting, like some old diaper digger. Hence my comment “we’re in a weird place here”. And on cue, you show up. LOL

The images show a 40-50% chance of above average temperature from November through March. How does that add up to cold air?

Manney wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 30, 2023 11:40 am

connyro wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 30, 2023 11:25 am

Manney wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 30, 2023 11:10 am

Yup. Focused on the pics tho. It can all add up to the same thing tho, depending on wind patterns. Let me explain…

Cold dry air is ideal early in the season can produce some epic snow in our region, but only if the wind pattern comes across the GL. The key is early in the season because a lot of surface area is lost as the lakes freeze. Superior never freezes completely over tho.. it’s so damned big.

That same cold dry air doesn’t achieve anything to do with snow late in the season if the wind patterns are all zonal W —> E across the plains). Nothing but a thin layer of cold powder over stubble. No big snow.

Warm air does nothing early in the season, regardless of the flow. Late in the season, it can generate some stuff as elevations rise but that’s about it. The best scenario is warm patterns pumping moisture from the east in a nor’easter kind of deal. Big dumps, pretty wet, skiable for a fairly short period of time. We’re sort of on the edge of that zone… N NYS gets most of that kind of stuff, when it happens.

So much of this is a timing and wind pattern thing, with moisture levels being part of the equation. Makes my head hurt thinking about all the possibilities this far out tho.

We’re in a weird place here… the lakes split patterns, temperature, have a big affect on moisture levels that is highly dependent on air temperature.

More misinformation from manney. Lake superior last froze over completely in 1994. Also, dry air does not produce snow and your assessment of how lake effect snow works is laughably over-simplified and incorrect. And nor'easters don't really directly affect us here in the UP.

It’s a once in a generation event.

Dry air picks up moisture from open water. When that moisture laden air hits elevation, it cools further, losing its ability to hold the water it did. If the upper air temperature is cold enough, it falls as snow. Works the same way in the Rockies… air picks up water over the ocean, is saturated and raises humidity on the coast, hits elevation, releases moisture, tumbles over the mountain and sweeps east as dry air, crosses the plains, dries that place out like a soda cracker, hits the lakes, picks up moisture leading to snow from MI to the NE states.

Re: nor’easter… “N NYS gets most of that stuff”. I guess that wasn’t clear enough for you, NYS and the UP being completely different places.

Where did you go on the Military Ski thread? I thought you were in the the long haul… then you said you were thinking of leaving the forum… but still posting.

Maybe you weren’t thinking at all. Or contributing. Just venting, like some old diaper digger. Hence my comment “we’re in a weird place here”. And on cue, you show up. LOL

You are so easy to predict and trigger into acting like a threatened little bigoted bully: just disagree with you and it sets you off. You can't handle any dissent or disagreement yet you strut around talking about how having an open mind is so important. Blowhard.

You’re not giving a contrasting view. You’re just saying “wrong”, hurling personal attacks… even threatening to derail a thread on purpose. That’s not dissent or disagreement. Nor is it defence. You’re just coming to start a fight.

Al did the same thing. Kept it up for quite a long time. How did that work out for him?

https://www.telemarktalk.com/viewtopic. ... =70#p61047

So here you are, doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome. How crazy is that?

My intention is to continue to post, contribute. Engage you in this BS. Wait for the mod response. Why? It’s the only way to scrub put the hardened batshit crazy old cranky man out of this place. (Emphasis on batshit crazy, cranky)

Younger, keener, more capable skiers like EricH became a bit more active just after Johnny’s intervention with Al. Do you think that was a coincidence? Heck, no.

Scrubbing the crazy, cranky old guard out of this place is the quickest route to building a better, more vibrant site. Generating enough revenue to keep it going. Attracting attention from the industry so that tele doesn’t turn into even less of a footnote than it has become over the past 20 years.

Manney wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 30, 2023 12:13 pm

You’re not giving a contrasting view. You’re just saying “wrong”, hurling personal attacks… even threatening to derail a thread on purpose. That’s not dissent or disagreement. Nor is it defence. You’re just coming to start a fight.

Al did the same thing. Kept it up for quite a long time. How did that work out for him?

https://www.telemarktalk.com/viewtopic. ... =70#p61047

So here you are, doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome. How crazy is that?

My intention is to continue to post, contribute. Engage you in this BS. Wait for the mod response. Why? It’s the only way to scrub put the hardened batshit crazy old cranky man out of this place. (Emphasis on batshit crazy, cranky)

Younger, keener, more capable skiers like EricH became a bit more active just after Johnny’s intervention with Al. Do you think that was a coincidence? Heck, no.

Scrub it the crazy, cranky old guard out of this place is the quickest route to building a better, more vibrant site. Generating enough revenue to keep it going. Attracting attention from the industry so that tele doesn’t turn into even less of a footnote than it has become over the past 20 years.

dry air is not part of the lake effect equation. Moist air is. Lake superior last froze over in 1994. nor'easters don't affect the UP directly. These are facts