Avalanche Risk

[joeatomictoad]

“No amount of formal training can replace common sense”
Would you let someone you care about use your table saw, without training? Hoping that they would find out about kickback, bind up, safe blade height, etc. before they cut a finger off, or worse?

Would you turn a 15 year old loose in an automobile without any training, and just rely on “common sense?”

I would argue that there is no such thing, AT ALL, as common sense.
What we call common sense is knowledge gained through observation and experience.

Maybe “worst thing” and “common sense” are just figures of speech, and I shouldn’t be so literal…

Good discussion! I think we're on the same page... we want our sport to thrive more with people getting injured less.

Avy training courses, multiple excursions to the mountains... this all increases safety factors (we hope). However, if homeboy is a complete knucklehead, and does not properly apply what was previously learned or experienced, this would decrease that safety factor.

knowledge ≠ understanding

[Personally, I would argue for gaining AND applying knowledge.

Yes, agree with this 100%

[lowangle al]

I took an intro avy course 30 years ago and never felt the need for further education. The reason was that I was good with the knowledge of how to identify avy terrain and stay off it and not go under it. When you get into advanced training you are now making evaluations yourself in addition to knowing the snowpack history and current risk as reported by an avy center. When you start digging pits and making decisions based on your findings you only increase your risk, because if you decide to go and expose yourself to the risk it is naturally more dangerous than turning back and finding lower angle stuff.

I had done a lot of cheating over the years by telling myself things like it's "low consequence terrain" or "I'll stay off to the side of the slope" or the Avy report says only "moderate danger" Over the years I saw from personal experience and reading reports that my cheating was not as safe as I thought. You also have to realistically think of the consequences of being caught. Even with all the proper gear do you really want to risk having to use it looking for a partner, especially a loved one, or putting you wife in that situation.

Early on I made a choice to forego the steep stuff in the bc unless I was part of a highly skilled group or it was spring isothermic conditions. Except for two situations above I reserve my steep skiing for the resort. That is why I call myself "lowangle Al" and not "high angle Al".

[Cannatonic]

>>Waiting 24 hours is probably better than nothing;

this was my point and nothing more! I'm not down on avalanche education, everybody should take the course. I read "Backcountry" magazine and often there are stories of avalanche burials where people are deciding on-the-fly whether some roller or particular aspect is safe or not - if you're doing that you're already in deep shit IMO. Or sending 1 guy down to ski-check it first - great idea, a sacrificial lamb!

In a brainwashed consumer society I worry that people buy a bunch of stuff and think it will cover their ass. It's like cancer, you need to focus on prevention, not treatment. You should learn how to use the tools, but you don't want to ever use them. I wonder if that message is getting through. Ski the resort the day after the storm, then hit the BC when it's tracked out. That simple rule kept a lot of people alive before the modern era of avalanche tools & education, web sites, daily forecasts. etc.

On Mount Washington there are a lot of deaths from cold where people from out of town have scheduled a trip to ice-climb or winter hiking and they get here and it's -30 with 80mph winds and they still go & get frozen. Because it was scheduled months ago & they won't give it up. The news stories rarely say "everybody else in the valley chose not to climb that day"

[Stephen]

I took an intro avy course 30 years ago and never felt the need for further education. The reason was that I was good with the knowledge of how to identify avy terrain and stay off it and not go under it. When you get into advanced training you are now making evaluations yourself in addition to knowing the snowpack history and current risk as reported by an avy center. When you start digging pits and making decisions based on your findings you only increase your risk, because if you decide to go and expose yourself to the risk it is naturally more dangerous than turning back and finding lower angle stuff.

I had done a lot of cheating over the years by telling myself things like it's "low consequence terrain" or "I'll stay off to the side of the slope" or the Avy report says only "moderate danger" Over the years I saw from personal experience and reading reports that my cheating was not as safe as I thought. You also have to realistically think of the consequences of being caught. Even with all the proper gear do you really want to risk having to use it looking for a partner, especially a loved one, or putting you wife in that situation.

Early on I made a choice to forego the steep stuff in the bc unless I was part of a highly skilled group or it was spring isothermic conditions. Except for two situations above I reserve my steep skiing for the resort. That is why I call myself "lowangle Al" and not "high angle Al".

I’m feeling simpatico with @lowangle al’s last post!
EDIT: and @Cannatonic’s who just slipped in there.

I’m not suggesting advanced study.
But, Al learned enough to realize that his thought-process was putting him in harms way.
Rationalization and justification.

Without some level of education, it’s all too easy to not know what one doesn’t know.
Once one has the knowledge, it becomes a matter of self-management and discipline.

It’s my impression that, after education (books, basic course, etc.) discipline is one of the most important components of avalanche safety. To not make emotional decisions in the moment, but rather have a plan and stick to it, only making adjustments to the plan in the moment that DECREASE risk, never INCREASE risk.

It’s pretty sobering to read avalanche reports that include death.

Find the avalanche center for your area: https://avalanche.org/us-avalanche-centers/
Read the daily reports.
Heed the advice.
Be safe, have fun.

[paulzo]

One thing I found to be very useful was getting an inclinometer. One of the first things you learn about, whether from books or in a course, is slope angles. But its hard to gauge slope angles until you have actually measured some out in the wild, and for that you need an inclinometer.

[lowangle al]

Good point Paulzo, you need to know what your dealing with. I like to know slope angles just for shits and giggles even if avy danger isn't a problem. It's also good to practice with one because results can be variable depending your perspective. I'll practice with mine at home looking out the window measuring neighbors roofs to see that I'm getting consistent results and to be more familiar with judging angles by eye.

I'm not sure if people are aware that there iphone probably has one. My last 3 or 4 did.

[Stephen]

Here’s a link to an inexpensive Inclinometer App that has been highly and broadly recommended:
https://wbskiing.com/inclinometer.php
Nice thing about the above App is that the screen can be frozen on an angle for easier review.

And like @lowangle al said, iPhone has that feature in the built-in “Measure” App.

[Stephen]

Starts about 14 minutes in...

EDIT: 2020/21 -- Message fatigue: "Persistent Weak Layer"

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cH ... HQAAAAAQAQ
"Episode 44: Lessons from Utah’s Wilson Glade Avalanche

Last February, two separate backcountry ski parties headed out for what they thought was lower-angle, safer terrain in the Wilson Glade area of Utah’s Wasatch Mountains. The avalanche risk was high that day but they were prepared. Both groups studied the avalanche forecast, made conservative travel plans, and carried all the right safety gear into the mountains. But, all precautions aside, the two parties were swept away in a colossal avalanche. Four of eight people on the mountain died that day. What went wrong?

Avalanche Forecaster Nikki Champion of the Utah Avalanche Center, investigated the accident. She gives her best insights on the lessons that can be gleaned from this tragic incident.


“I think this accident really hit home with a lot of backcountry users,” Champion says. “Because it was a lot of decisions that most of us could see ourselves making: being in lower-angle terrain, traveling one at a time, skiing the slope multiple times and not seeing any obvious red flags in that area.”"
.

[lowangle al]

Avy info centers are a good resource to check out even if you don't plan to be in avy terrain. You can get an idea of the surface condition for skiing as they are usually part of the daily report and are also mentioned in the public observations.

[Stephen]

Avy info centers are a good resource to check out even if you don't plan to be in avy terrain. You can get an idea of the surface condition for skiing as they are usually part of the daily report and are also mentioned in the public observations.

What Al said.

And, but, I watched that stuff (above) last year, and kept seeing "Persistent Weak Layer" for months and started to tune it out.
At the same time, I was hearing Whumps most of the season.
As if that was sort of a normal condition, since it had been going on for so long.
They mention it in the Podcast, that last year was a bad year for that condition over a large part of the US.

The slope angle where the avalanche started was 31*.
Pretty hard to distinguish 29* form 31*. Or realize that adjacent slopes can pull down a bigger area than one might think.
I think it was four skiers had skied that same slope for three runs with no warning signs.
Some of those killed were in a separate group / party, at the base of the slope, getting ready to ski.
They saw the avalanche coming down the slope and thought it would run out and stop before getting to them.

I know I'm posting a lot on this, but really think it's worth raising awareness on the subject.
Not suggesting that folks become avalanche experts.

Just get enough education to know when to back off, which is not a "common sense" sort of thing.