Weather forecasts

[Manney]

The images show a 40-50% chance of above average temperature from November through March. How does that add up to cold air?

And my graphic showed colder. Yours is more recent but the probability doesn’t make warmer a certainty. Same for colder. Those patterns aren’t arbitrary… and they’re only relative (more on this in a moment). They suggest what climate wonks think that the prevailing flow of jet stream will be doing.

We get a lot of super cold air in the UP from Canada. It doesn’t take much flow from the south to buffer it. That doesn’t mean we’ll be basking in warmth. It might mean we’re just a bit warmer than normal. It will still be cold enough for snow (maybe grandpa @connyro can dig into his weather charts and find a year when it wasn’t cold enough to snow and suggest that a once in a generation event from 30 years ago is all of a sudden going to be the new norm, but that sort of testimony is silly) … but only if there is enough moisture to make it happen.

Which comes back to that jet stream thing and the UP. We’re in an edge zone that will be influenced by what the jet stream actually does. The bends and loops have a profound effect on snow here… just like east coast lows have a profound effect on snow in the NE states and can deliver some great snow as far west as N NYS (which is not the same as MI, @connyro). Surface winds can mitigate this a lot… wind hitting the Porkies at an oblique angle will change direction etc.

Warmer or colder, if the predominant surface winds passes over Superior into the UP, it will be an epic year (regardless of whether it is incrementally colder or warmer than historical norms).

[mca80]

So let me get this straight. My initial post expressed disappointment in a forecast of above normal temps and below normal precipitation. But you're telling me that if cold air passes over Superior then we get snow (which is obvious)? Ok, hardly negates disappointing likely prospect of warmer and dryer.

[Manney]

Yeah, it’s about where the wind blows.

Climatologists consider one or two degrees to be a huge seasonal variation… and it is from their perspective. Heck, half a degree or so above of below the mean is the threshold for calling El Niño or La Niña.

For skier folk in this part of the country, that’s not as big a deal as surface winds and open water on the GLs. Why? Because cold enough is cold enough… but if the winds across the plains don’t pick up moisture over the lakes, then our season is affected greatly.

[connyro]

Yeah, it’s about where the wind blows.

Climatologists consider one or two degrees to be a huge seasonal variation… and it is from their perspective. Heck, half a degree or so above of below the mean is the threshold for calling El Niño or La Niña.

For skier folk in this part of the country, that’s not as big a deal as surface winds and open water on the GLs. Why? Because cold enough is cold enough… but if the winds across the plains don’t pick up moisture over the lakes, then our season is affected greatly.

Wrong again Manney. System snows bring the most accumulations and snowpack moisture content for UP winters and most communities inland away from LE influence rely on system snows for the lion's share of their accumulations. Generally, areas downwind of typical lake effect snowbelts (N to NW snowbelts generally speaking) are very wind direction dependent and get less of an overall proportion of their snowpack from system snows. Most of the UP is not directly in the lake effect snow belts, so making broad conclusions about upcoming winter weather in the UP based solely on wind direction/lake effect is downright wrong.
Also, the general thinking is that lake superior freezes over 100% about every 20 years. Some sources say the last time it happened was 2014. I've been aware of it completely freezing over 3 times in my time here in the UP and I'm not considered old. Another tid-bit that you got wrong is that wind is the usual culprit for less than 100% ice coverage. Oh, and dry air still doesn't cause lake effect snow.

[Manney]

Yawn. Some say 1996, 2014, 2016.

My guess is that you’re on the high side of 60, so every 20 years (which is considered a “generation” btw) sounds about right… though there’s so much discrepancy in what’s online that it’s hard to nail down.

Now… when does it freeze completely over in that once in a generation event? Betcha it’s not November, December of January Einstein. It’s one of the biggest fresh water lakes in the world. Deep too. So lots of open water most of the winter… even on those once in a generation events. Now when do we get the most snow in the UP?

Well first of all, it varies from 75” in De Tour Village to over 185” in Ironwood. January is by far the snowiest month historically. December and February are pretty close. Not much in November, but it can and does happen. Things taper off in March, but we can still snow in April as you know.

So we get 5 to 10 feet of snow each year, most of it falls well before the lake could even freeze over in an unusual (once in a generation) year.

Dry air passing over water picks up moisture, which is then deposited as snow. Not surprising you can’t understand this because there is more than one thing happening.

So quit being an argumentative old man. You’re just dog piling out of frustration with my presence and you’ll end up getting worse and worse until Johnny shows you the exit sign…

… and the probability of that happening this year is far higher than any chance of the lake freezing over.

[connyro]

Yawn. Some say 1996, 2014, 2016.

My guess is that you’re on the high side of 60, so every 20 years (which is considered a “generation” btw) sounds about right… though there’s so much discrepancy in what’s online that it’s hard to nail down.

Now… when does it freeze completely over in that once in a generation event? Betcha it’s not November, December of January Einstein. It’s one of the biggest fresh water lakes in the world. Deep too. So lots of open water most of the winter… even on those once in a generation events. Now when do we get the most snow in the UP?

Well first of all, it varies from 75” in De Tour Village to over 185” in Ironwood. January is by far the snowiest month historically. December and February are pretty close. Not much in November, but it can and does happen. Things taper off in March, but it can still snow in April as you know.

So we get 5 to 10 feet of snow each year, most of it falls well before the lake could even freeze over in an unusual (once in a generation) year.

So quit being an argumentative old man. You’re just dog piling out of frustration with my presence and you’ll end up getting worse and worse until Johnny shows you the exit sign.

Nice deflection. That's all you have is misinformation, deflection, bullying, and what about isms. That's your whole bag of tricks.
Well dopey, you're off by a couple decades on my age. And go ahead and tattle to mommy about the mean old man that's calling you out on your errors. Big threat! If "love"Johnny wants to support a bigoted bully, it's his site and that's his prerogative.

[Manney]

You were making me sleepy for a while. Got over that earlier in the day. Went for a trail ride with a ski buddy (TT lurker). He had a theory… said your posts read like an old man on physical decline. Prolly one or two health scares down… seeing the time coming when you’re having trouble holding yer mud. Lashing out against anybody reminding him of his age, because that gets him thinking about frailty when the lights go out at night. Started out being a crotchety old prick in some blue collar job where thinking and people skills were valued less than leaning on a shovel when the boss wasn’t looking. The worst part is that you know that if you make it to a retirement “home”, you’re going to piss off the people who keep you from making a fool of yourself smearing shit all over the walls.

That last was what made me laugh the most. Think about where this will go for you…

Buddy works the trades and has a few old uncles, so he knows the type. Says you sound just like them. Interesting POV. Wonder how much of it is true?

[connyro]

You were making me sleepy for a while. Got over that earlier in the day. Went for a trail ride with a ski buddy (TT lurker). He had a theory… said your posts read like an old man on physical decline. Prolly one or two health scares down… seeing the time coming when you’re having trouble holding yer mud. Lashing out against anybody reminding him of his age, because that gets him thinking about frailty when the lights go out at night. Started out being a crotchety old prick in some blue collar job where thinking and people skills were valued less than leaning on a shovel when the boss wasn’t looking. The worst part is that you know that if you make it to a retirement “home”, you’re going to piss off the people who keep you from making a fool of yourself smearing shit all over the walls.

That last was what made me laugh the most.

Buddy works the trades and has a few old uncles, so he knows the type. Says you sound just like them. Interesting POV. Wonder how much of it is true?

This is pure gold.

[Manney]

That’s just what my buddy said. Who knows how true it is. Worth sharing tho. Never too late to change.